Hungary

November 2005 | Risk Summary

The ascendancy of the incumbent Socialists has been demonstrated in recent polls of public opinion. While most polls continue to suggest that the Socialists are still marginally behind the opposition Fidesz party, research agency Tarki reported in October that the ruling party actually opened up a three percentage point lead over Fidesz, with 32% of the vote compared to 29%. Although historically polling results have been poor predictors of election outcomes, we expect a close contest in elections in spring next year, with the lure of populist policies an associated

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