MoldovaOctober 2012 |
After dipping during the summer, consumer inflation accelerated again in September, hitting 4.9% y-o-y. Food inflation rose by 5.1% y-o-y, a sharp rise from the 3.5% figure recorded in August, as the widespread drought that hit domestic crops over the summer put additional pressure on prices. We retain our forecast for end-year inflation of 5.4% y-o-y, slightly above the central bank's 5.0% target. This will limit the scope for further monetary easing this year, and we have updated our end-year interest rate forecast to reflect an expectation that the benchmark rate will be held at 4.5%.
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