Macroeconomic Forecast Kazakhstan

We hold to our forecast for real GDP in Kazakhstan to come in at 5.8% in 2012 before rising to 6.3% in 2013 down from 7.5% in 2011. We highlight that official forecasts are now in line with our own following the announcement by the Economic Development and Trade Ministry on September 11 that the official forecast has been lowered to 5.8% from 6.0% previously. Weak external demand and concomitant lower commodity prices have seen industrial production fall by 3.7% y-o-y in August. We expect economic growth to pick up in 2013 as the recovery in global demand boosts Kazakh exports.

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