Macroeconomic Forecast Tajikistan

BMI View: We have revised up our forecast for Tajikistan's real GDP growth in 2012 to 7.2% from 5.5% previously, and forecast 7.0% growth in 2013. This revision comes on the heels of data released by the National Bank of Tajikistan showing that real GDP in H112 came in at 7.4% y-o-y. Better than expected remittance inflows, in particular from Russia which topped US$1.41bn in H112, up 17.9% y-o-y, and robust industrial production have propelled the economy higher. However, with Russia and China slowing, we expect growth to ease off somewhat in the coming months and through H113.

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