Macroeconomic Forecast Kyrgyzstan

We forecast Kyrgyzstan to post a full-year recession equal to 3.2% in real GDP terms in 2012 before recovering to 3.1% in 2013. The disruption of mining activity at the Kumtor gold mine run by Centerra Gold company at the start of the year has had a disastrous effect on Kyrgyzstan’s economic growth. However, looking to 2013, barring further extended periods of disruption, we expect still-high gold prices and a recovery in the external market to feed through to higher export volumes and revenues for Kyrgyzstan, concomitantly boosting economic growth.

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