Georgia

Georgia continues to boast a relatively stable political environment, with a particularly strong ‘policy continuity’ component in our short-term political risk rating for the Caucasus country. Our expectations for the ruling United National Movement party of President Mikhail Saakashvili to win another parliamentary majority in the upcoming October election further strengthens this point. That said, the continuing diplomatic deadlock with neighbouring Russia over the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Akhazia, weighs heavily on Georgia’s external security profile. Despite seeing a very small chance of another outright military conflict with Russia (as seen in August 2008), lack of diplomatic progress means that Georgia’s security profile will not improve any time soon.

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