Macroeconomic Forecast Azerbaijan

Latest data from Azerbaijan’s State Statistical Committee suggest that the economy grew by 1.6% in real terms during the first seven months of the year. This is broadly in line with our full-year real GDP growth forecast of 3.5% for this year, although we note that the monthly real GDP growth series does not necessarily correlate directly with the full-year data. Nevertheless, the direction appears to be right, as the economy recovers from just 0.1% real GDP growth in 2011, after a series of oil production shutdowns saw the non-energy sector economy become the sole engine of growth last year. Base effects and an increase in production ensure a more solid growth trajectory in 2012.

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