Macroeconomic Forecast Mongolia

The first half of the year has seen Mongolia's current account deficit reach US$1.37bn, which marks a 30% year-on-year widening of the gap over the same period in 2011, when the deficit stood at US$1.06bn. With the current account historically pushing deeper into the red in the second half of the year, we believe that the year-to-date current account figure is mostly in line with our full-year deficit forecast of US$3.73bn (27.9% of GDP). In 2013 we see the deficit narrowing slightly to US$3.69bn (23.4% of GDP), as lower commodity prices help to reduce Mongolia's import bill.

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