Macroeconomic Forecast Slovakia

Industrial production in Slovakia grew by 10.8% y-o-y in May - essentially flat from April's reading of 10.9% y-o-y, but nonetheless a robust reading in the context of the increasingly weak external environment. We expect Slovakia's automobile manufacturing sector to remain one of the key drivers of growth over the second half of 2012 and through 2013, providing support to Slovakia's net exports. We are forecasting industrial production to average 7% y-o-y throughout 2012, and expect net exports to provide 2.5 pp and 1.5 pp of growth in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

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