Macroeconomic Forecast Serbia

We expect the full-year current account balance to remain broadly unchanged in 2012, forecasting a deficit of 9.5% of GDP versus 9.3% in 2011. Improvement in the trade balance is domestic demand weakens is likely to be offset by a deteriorating transfers balance, while investment inflows should increase later in the year if the government stabilises Serbia's fiscal trajectory, allowing the central bank to reduce reserve spending.

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