Macroeconomic Forecast Croatia

We forecast Croatia's economy to post a full-year contraction equivalent to 1.5% in real GDP terms in 2012 before staging a mild recovery of 1.2% in 2013. Net exports will be the only positive contributor to growth this year, in spite of the fall in external demand, as import growth contracts. This will come about as a result of official fiscal austerity and the subsequent impact on household consumption and investment spending. The more positive outlook in 2013 will come as a result of EU accession, which will bring increased structural funds, and a better outlook for the global economy.

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