Macroeconomic Forecast Latvia

We forecast Latvia's GDP per capita, in US$ terms, to remain amongst the lowest in the EU over our forecast period to 2021, above only Romania and Bulgaria. By our forecasts, GDP by capita in Latvia will increase by 75.4% over the 2011 level of US$11,797 to US$20,690. The strong growth figure is affected by the massive destruction in wealth and loss of human capital caused by the deep economic contraction of 2009. Indeed, we do not forecast Latvia's economy to return to its peak level until 2016 at the earliest, behind Estonia in 2014 and Lithuania in 2015.

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