Macroeconomic Forecast Macedonia

The slump in industrial output continued in Q112, with the turnover index down 8.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in March, following similar declines in the first two months of the year. Manufacturing, including the country's important metals sector, fell by 6.4% y-o-y, while electricity output also plummeted. After a mild recovery in 2011, the shrinking industrial sector is an indication of weakening growth in 2012, and we forecast a 5.5% contraction over the course of the year, recovering to a 4.5% expansion in

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