Macroeconomic Forecast Russia

We currently forecast a narrowing of Russia's current account surplus from US$98.8bn in 2011 to US$80.1bn in 2012, or 4.2% of GDP, as export growth stalls to 10.0% this year, from 30.4% in 2011. Although imports of goods are also set to grow at a slower pace than in 2011, we still forecast a slightly higher growth rate of 16.0%. We see the trade in goods surplus remaining almost flat at US$198.6bn, up from US$198.2bn in the previous year. The trade in services deficit, meanwhile, will widen to US$41.2bn, up from US$36.0bn in 2011, while investment income outflows will pick up in the first half of the year.

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