Macroeconomic Forecast BulgariaMay 2012 | Macroeconomic Forecasts
In line with our expectation consumer price inflation in Bulgaria ticked up to 2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April, from 1.7% y-o-y in March. Following the recent period of disinflation, we expect that elevated global oil prices will continue to modestly push consumer prices higher in H212, in line with our end-2012 consumer price inflation (HICP) forecast of 2.2% y-o-y. Despite the country effectively importing its monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB), we do not expect the ECB's easing cycle to pose inflationary pressure in Bulgaria, given our relatively downbeat outlook for domestic demand.
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