Macroeconomic Forecast Lithuania

Industrial production growth accelerated to 6.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April, up from 5.9% in March and 3.3% in February. Having averaged 4.4% in the first four months of the year, we observe a steady improvement in industrial output in Lithuania, and forecast the industrial production growth rate to accelerate to 8.0% by end-2012. We believe that while weaker external demand and still weak domestic activity will weigh on industrial output, this will be partly offset by the low base set in late 2011, when industrial output shrank by 2.1% y-o-y in December.

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