Economic Slowdown Already Underway

Despite overshooting our 2011 estimate of 4.9% real GDP growth - with the economy expanding by 5.8% last year - we believe that the sharp slowdown in economic activity in Q411 highlights how weaker external demand is beginning to catch up with Lithuania's economic recovery. We therefore hold to our forecast of just 0.1% real GDP growth in 2012, and highlight that further headwinds from the eurozone debt crisis present additional downside risks.

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