Macroeconomic Forecast Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan's official reserves increased by 3.6% y-o-y in December to US$29.3bn, although decreased by 8.9% in month-on-month terms from US$32.2bn in November. International foreign currency reserves excluding gold decreased by 0.3% y-o-y to US$25.2bn and were below our US$29.9bn end-2011 forecast. We maintain our end-2012 forecast for foreign currency reserves (excluding gold) at US$30.2bn, as we continue to expect favourable oil prices to contribute to the country's trade surplus.

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