Macroeconomic Forecast Mongolia

According to preliminary data from the Mongolian National Statistical Office, the Mongolian economy grew by a whopping 17.3% in 2011, exceeding our own 15.8% real GDP growth estimate. Latest data suggest that the mining and quarrying sector grew by 8.7% last year, while the manufacturing sector grew 16.0% in real terms. Construction was up 14.3% and wholesale and retail trade rose by a staggering 42.5% in 2011. We maintain a more pessimistic outlook on Mongolia's growth prospects in 2012, forecasting a sharp slowdown to 5.6% growth on account of a hard landing in China.

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