Macroeconomic Forecast Belarus

Economic growth has been confirmed at 1.9% in the third quarter of 2011, down from 11.4% in Q211. Households saw a 0.7% y-o-y contraction in demand (down from 7.1% the previous quarter) while gross fixed capital formation declined 2.9% (following a 25.3% expansion in Q211). We hold to our estimate for growth to have come in at 3.9% in 2011, but owing to the economic toll of the 2011 devaluation, growth is set to slow to 0.4% in 2012.

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