Macroeconomic Forecast KyrgyzstanJanuary 2012 | Macroeconomic Forecasts
We have revised down our forecast for end-2012 Kyrgyz consumer price inflation to 6.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 8.3% previously. We currently estimate end-2011 growth in the consumer price index to have fallen to 7.0% y-o-y from an annual high of 22.7% y-o-y in April and June. While we expect economic growth to be supported by the ongoing rebuilding drive in the country, our Commodities team's view that global food and energy prices will average lower than in 2011 - the run up in prices seen in the first half of 2011 was a key driver behind strong inflationary pressures in H111 - leads us to believe inflationary pressures will ease over the course of 2012.
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