Russian Resurgence Underpins Baltic Anxiety

We expect tensions in the Baltic region to remain elevated in 2012 against the backdrop of an increasingly assertive Russian state. However, while we do not expect outright Russian aggression against any Baltic state, a deterioration in diplomatic ties with Russia could be caused by a number of flashpoint issues. Moreover, the impact on the region would not be uniform, with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania having different degrees and channels of exposure to Russian influence.

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