Macroeconomic Forecast Uzbekistan

We have revised down our real GDP forecast for Uzbekistan in 2012 to 8.1%, from 8.4%, on our view that the external environment will dampen demand for Uzbek exports, in particular commodities. However, given the elevated prices for key Uzbek exports, which will keep values high, we do not believe that the Central Asian country will be as impacted by the global economic slowdown as some of its neighbours. Moreover, the government's sustained expansionary fiscal policy will keep government consumption at an elevated level, further bolstering growth.

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