Macroeconomic Forecast Armenia

We have lowered our real GDP growth forecast for Armenia to 3.4% and 2.0% for 2011 and 2012 respectively, down from our previous forecast for 6.2% and 5.8%. Even taking into account the massive contraction in GDP registered in 2009, our average real GDP growth forecast between 2011 and 2015, at 3.3%, still underperforms the average growth recorded in the five years to 2010 (4.4%). Although the downgrade suggests that a recession in Armenia remains some way off, we note that our projections are well below the Armenian government's growth forecast of 4.6% in 2011 and 4.2% in 2012.

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