Macroeconomic Forecast Russia

According to the most recent data, real GDP growth in Russia sped up in the third quarter, posting a 4.8% annualised outturn, with relatively healthy labour market dynamics, the ongoing recovery in domestic credit and elevated commodity prices proving the likely growth drivers. However, for now, we hold to our below-consensus growth forecasts of 3.3% and 3.2% in 2011 and 2012 as the external environment grows increasingly more challenging. The domestic picture also looks set to moderate going forward.

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