Macroeconomic Forecast Macedonia

The cumulative current account deficit more than tripled to EUR-0.22bn (US$-0.39bn) in the first eight months of 2011, compared to the same period of last year. The deterioration was driven by a 22% y-o-y increase in the merchandise trade account, itself a reflection of improved domestic demand for imports. While this should ease as growth decelerates from H211, we expect the full-year current account shortfall to hit -5.9% of GDP in 2011, up from -2.8% in 2010, and then remain elevated over the five-year forecast

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