Macroeconomic Forecast Russia

Although we see growing risks to global demand for crude oil, we expect oil prices to remain relatively well supported for the time being, which should continue to favour the Russian rouble in the near term. Therefore, while the rouble has not been spared the widespread sell-off in early August, we have upped our average exchange rate forecast for 2011 to RUB28.66/US$, from RUB29.49/US$ previously. Looking at our end-year exchange rate forecast for the Russian rouble, however, we have lowered our target to RUB28.60/US$ from RUB28.45/US$ previously, in accordance with our recently revised rate outlook for Russia.

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