Macroeconomic Forecast Armenia

Armenian industrial production growth slowed to 10.2% year-on-year in July, down sharply from 24.7% in June and below the year-to-date average of 12.2%, suggesting that a downtrend in industrial production growth may be underway. This generally chimes with our end-year forecast of 8.0% growth. That said, we note that industrial output growth could still spike higher in the near term as the weaker July reading may have been due to a one-off drop in output that month. Indeed, on a monthly basis industrial production contracted by 6.7% in July alone, following two months of firmly positive monthly growth.

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