Macroeconomic Forecast Turkey

Industrial production growth rose to 11.0% y-o-y in August, up from 6.9% the previous quarter but down from 19.0% at the start of the year. While we expect most headline economic indicators in Turkey to moderate in the second half of 2011, we note that the weaker lira should help support exports and in turn Turkish industry. As a result, we identify upside risks to our end-year forecast of 6.0% for industrial production growth.

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