Macroeconomic Forecast Kyrgyzstan

We forecast Kyrgyzstan's economy to expand by 4.1% in 2011 and 5.2% in 2012, however, we note that given the recent run up in gold prices in the face of ongoing global uncertainty and the metals position as a global safe haven, these forecasts will likely be revised upwards. Indeed, the IMF currently forecasts Kyrgyzstan's economy to grow by 7.0% and 6.0% in real terms over the same periods. Besides elevated commodity prices, we believe the government's continued efforts to rebuild the country's infrastructure following wide-spread violence in 2010 will help bolster economic growth.

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