Macroeconomic Forecast TajikistanSeptember 2011 | Macroeconomic Forecasts
We have revised our forecast for Tajikistan's currency, the somoni, to end the year at TJS4.8500/US$, bringing the average to TJS4.6266/US$. The unit has continued to depreciate against the dollar since March of this year. Authorities have explained this depreciation as a result of the demand for dollars rising during the sowing season. We expect that domestic concerns over the weak state of the economy have also played a roll in the populace demanding dollars over the local currency. Precluding a more severe sell-off will be strong remittances flowing mostly from Russia and Kazakhstan. Moreover, we would expect the central bank to step in should the unit come under more severe selling pressure.
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