Macroeconomic Forecast Azerbaijan

Headline consumer price inflation in Azerbaijan remained at elevated levels in recent months, with prices rising 8.7% over the same period in the previous year, during the first seven months of 2011. However, on a monthly basis, consumer prices started to decline in recent months, dropping by as much as 0.9% in June. While we continue to forecast an end-year inflation print of 7.9%, the risk of elevated food price, which have risen by 12.3% year-on-year in January-June, could see inflation remain above 8% through year-end.

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