Macroeconomic Forecast Georgia

Georgia's trade gap grew by a whopping 32.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first half of 2011 despite export growth of 43.8% y-o-y to US$1.04bn recorded during this period. While in the process of moderating, imports of goods rose by 36.1% y-o-y in the first half of the year to US$3.03bn, resulting in a trade deficit of US$2.0bn. Although a moderation in global commodity prices should help to alleviate pressures on the trade account, elevated global oil prices and stable domestic demand are unlikely to result in a sharp narrowing of the trade gap. We are forecasting a full-year trade deficit of US$2.56bn.

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