Macroeconomic Forecast Uzbekistan

We forecast Uzbekistan's current account balance to come in at a US$4.3bn surplus in 2011, representing 9.8% of GDP up from 6.8% of GDP in 2010. We forecast the merchandise trade surplus to ring in at US$4.8bn this year. We forecast exports to improve by 14.0% year-on-year as global prices for key commodities that Uzbekistan exports (gas and cotton chief amongst them) remain elevated this year. We expect this dynamic to keep the balance of trade in goods well supported this year. Further bolstering our positive view for the country's balance of payments position is our expectation that remittance inflows will continue to recover this year, bolstering the current transfers account.

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