Macroeconomic Forecast Turkmenistan

We hold to our forecast for Turkmenistan to register 9.7% real GDP growth this year, up from 9.2% witnessed in 2010. High global commodity prices for Turkmenistan's key exports ( in particular natural gas )underpins our view for continued robust economic growth in the Central Asian country. Moreover, the commencement of gas exports to china, expected at about 30bn cubic metres per year, will further boost gas revenues. Moreover, we expect the ongoing, albeit slow, push for diversification of the economy to pay dividends over the longer term.

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