Macroeconomic Forecast Tajikistan

We currently forecast Tajikistan's fiscal position to come in at a slight surplus of 0.4% of GDP this year. Indicators show that the budget surplus for the months of January through May topped TJS199.1bn, equivalent to 2.4% of GDP. However, our forecast for the Tajik economy to expand by 6.3% this year, in real terms, down from 6.5% in 2010, compounded with the weak economic situation facing the populace will keep domestic revenues constrained. That said, with elevated global commodity prices, particularly on aluminium and cotton, we expect government revenues from value-added tax on imports and from customs duties to

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