Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine

We are revising upwards our 2011 current account deficit for Ukraine to 3.4% of GDP (from 2.3% previously). A stronger-than-expected recovery in household consumption as well as sharply higher natural gas import prices are the main catalyst for our revision. In our view, financing for the current account shortfall remains firm, but we caution that the country remains vulnerable to sudden deteriorations of external credit availability.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: