Macroeconomic Forecast Kyrgyzstan

We expect that Kyrgyzstan's economy will return to growth this year, following a 1.4% economic contraction in 2010. We forecast real GDP growth of 4.0% and a number of factors will work to propel the Kyrgyz economy forward in our view. Commodity prices remain elevated, which will provide a boon to Kyrgyz exports while planned investment in repairing infrastructure damaged by the 2010 coup will push gross fixed capital formation higher. Remittances will also experience a boost from the positive economic outlooks in Russia and Kazakhstan, where the majority of Kyrgyz migrant workers are employed.

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