Macroeconomic Forecast Belarus

Total goods exports came in at US$25.3 for 2010, while imports totalled a much larger US$34.5bn according to the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus. This resulted in a record trade deficit of US$9.1bn (over 15% of GDP in 2010). We expect the trade deficit to moderate this year on account of weakening ruble (which will increase the cost of imported goods) and state-led curbs on credit growth. That said, the deficit will remain large at US$7.3bn in 2011.

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