Economic Analysis - Slovakia - OCT 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Slovakia 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, EURbn 74.2 75.9 78.7 80.5 85.5 90.7 95.8
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.5 2.6 3.8 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0
GDP per capita, EUR 13,870 14,202 14,715 15,053 15,998 16,958 17,917
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 3.9 8.6 7.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 5.0
Population, mn 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.4 -0.1 -0.5 0.2 2.3 2.5 2.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 1.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 1.5 2.4 2.5
Central bank policy rate, % eop 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Exchange rate EUR/USD, ave 0.75 0.75 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.95
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.73 0.82 0.92 0.95 0.91 0.93 0.95
Budget balance, USDbn -2.7 -2.7 -2.4 -1.5 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -1.7 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7
Goods and services exports, EURbn 69.0 69.4 73.1 75.8 79.3 83.7 88.4
Goods and services imports, EURbn 65.6 66.5 71.2 73.1 77.5 81.9 86.6
Current account balance, EURbn 1.4 0.1 -1.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
Current account balance, % of GDP 2.0 0.1 -1.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
Foreign reserves ex gold, EURbn 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6
Import cover, months 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Total external debt stock, EURbn 46.8 55.4 53.5 58.8 59.4 62.9 66.5
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 65.5 66.8 66.8 69.4 69.4 69.4 69.4
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -64.5 -59.6 -66.3 -78.3 -79.4 -80.5 -81.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 5.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1