Economic Analysis - Slovakia - AUG 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Slovakia 2015-2021)
Indicator 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, EURbn 78.7 79.7 84.2 88.8 93.5 98.2 103.0
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.8 3.3 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.4
GDP per capita, EUR 14,748 14,940 15,780 16,651 17,521 18,403 19,306
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 7.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Population, mn 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -0.5 0.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave -0.3 -0.5 1.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5
Central bank policy rate, % eop 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.75
Exchange rate EUR/USD, ave 0.90 0.90 0.95 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.92 0.95 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00
Budget balance, USDbn -2.4 -2.2 -1.8 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.7 -2.5 -2.0 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9
Goods and services exports, EURbn 73.1 75.8 79.3 83.7 88.4 93.3 97.9
Goods and services imports, EURbn 71.2 73.1 77.5 81.9 86.6 91.4 96.1
Current account balance, EURbn -1.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -1.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4
Foreign reserves ex gold, EURbn 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8
Import cover, months 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Total external debt stock, EURbn 53.5 58.8 60.6 63.0 66.6 70.4 74.4
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 66.8 70.1 70.6 70.9 71.3 71.7 72.2
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -66.3 -78.3 -79.4 -80.5 -81.5 -82.4 -83.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2