Economic Analysis - Estonia - NOV 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Estonia 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, EURbn 18.9 19.8 20.3 20.9 22.5 23.6 25.1
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.4 2.8 1.4 1.6 3.2 3.1 3.1
GDP per capita, EUR 14,293 14,987 15,396 15,937 17,146 18,081 19,253
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 4.2 2.4 -4.7 2.0 3.2 4.0 4.2
Population, mn 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.30
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 2.0 0.1 -0.2 2.2 3.0 3.0 3.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 2.6 3.0 3.0
Central bank policy rate, % eop 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Exchange rate EUR/USD, ave 0.75 0.75 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.91 0.87
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.73 0.82 0.92 0.95 0.87 0.91 0.87
Budget balance, USDbn -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4
Budget balance, % of GDP -0.3 0.7 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4
Goods and services exports, EURbn 16.5 16.7 16.3 16.6 17.7 18.8 20.1
Goods and services imports, EURbn 16.1 16.1 15.5 15.9 16.9 18.0 19.1
Current account balance, EURbn 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -0.1 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8
Import cover, months 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Total external debt stock, EURbn 14.3 15.4 15.6 16.2 15.1 15.4 15.3
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 78.9 71.1 75.9 73.5 68.6 65.0 60.9
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -13.0 -13.5 -14.4 -15.0 -15.3 -15.6 -15.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5