Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Emerging Europe

 

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Weak Inflation Will Not Prompt Koruna Cap Shift - MAR 2015

Central Europe & Baltic States January 2015 / Czech Republic / Economy

Despite growing supply-push deflationary pressure in the Czech Republic, which will keep consumer price growth subdued, policymakers will refrain from targeting a weaker koruna and will maintain the cap at CZK27.00/EUR in 2015.

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Risk Summary - Russia - MAR 2015

Russia & CIS January 2015 / Russia / Economy

President Vladimir Putin approved a provisional version of the nation's anti-crisis plan in January 2015. The plan is a reactionary counter-cyclical fiscal package designed to reduce the severity the expected recession in Russia during 2015-2016. The total size of the planned fiscal stimulus is estimated to be roughly RUB1.4 trillion (USD20bn). One of the largest individual components of this plan is a proposed RUB250 recapitalisation of the nation's banks who suffered heavily during 2014. President Putin has requested that specific sources of funds for the allotments be identified. Depending on the government's willingness to tap oil funds this could see a reduction in sovereign wealth fund reserves to finance an increase budget deficit.

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Risk Summary - Bulgaria - Risk Summary - MAR 2015

South East Europe January 2015 / Bulgaria / Economy

The ruling centre-right GERB party has announced that it will consider including a referendum on compulsory voting alongside the local elections scheduled for autumn 2015. The referendum on compulsory voting was a manifesto pledge of GERB, and was also included in the coalition agreement between GERB and the Reformist Bloc. Bulgarian elections are plagued by both low voter turnout and vote buying, and we believe that the introduction of compulsory voting, potentially done electronically, will go some way to boosting the freedom and fairness of elections in the country.

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