Emerging Europe Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Emerging Europe

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Central Europe: Investment Rebound Key To Growth In 2017 - FEB 2017

Central Europe & Baltic States December 2016 / Europe / Economy

Data from Q316 shows that economic growth rates in Central Europe (CE) have cooled significantly on the back of a sharp slowdown in fixed investment, highlighting the region's dependence on EU structural funding inflows. Private consumption growth remains strong, but a rebound in investment will be crucial in keeping the positive consumer story alive and medium-term growth prospects robust over the coming years.

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Economic Analysis - FDI Inflows To Sustain CA Deficit - FEB 2017

Russia & CIS December 2016 / Georgia / Economy

Although Georgia's current account deficit will remain elevated in the years ahead, accelerating FDI inflows on account of returning investor confidence will improve the country risk profile by reducing the reliance on short-term capital to finance the deficit.

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Currency Forecast - Modest Appreciation Ahead - FEB 2017

South East Europe December 2016 / Romania / Finance

We forecast the Romanian leu (RON) to remain rather stable in the short term, despite current market volatility stemming from rising developed state yields, and expect it to moderately strengthen in the longer term. This trajectory will be driven by Romania's strong growth outlook, widening rate differentials, as well as external factors, including our expectation for a prolonged period of ultra-loose ECB loose European Central Bank monetary policy.

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