Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Emerging Europe

 

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Political Risk Analysis - Media Tax To Strain EU Relations - SEPT 2014

Central Europe & Baltic States July 2014 / Hungary / Political Risk

Hungary's new advertising tax and its opposition to the candidacy of Jean-Claude Juncker as European Commission President will strain its relations with the EU over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, Budapest's relatively pro-Russia stance over Ukraine will leave Hungary relatively isolated from its regional peers.

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Risk Summary - Georgia - SEPT 2014

Russia & CIS July 2014 / Georgia / Political Risk

The governing Georgian Dream coalition strengthened its grip on power domestically by winning all 21 run-off elections held in mayoral seats and municipalities across the country on July 12. Local municipalities had been the last stronghold for former President Mikheil Saakahsvili's United National Movement party. The result leaves Georgian Dream in control of the presidency, the parliament and a vast majority of municipalities in the country. Opposition politicians have stated that the governing coalition is attempting to cement its grip on power by stifling political competition. However, with Georgia seeking to develop its EU credentials, any hint that the country is shifting towards a one-party state or autocracy could halt this plan. We expect Georgia to remain the most politically open country in the South Caucasus for years to come.

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Risk Summary - Risk Summary - SEPT 2014

South East Europe July 2014 / Bulgaria / Political Risk

Recent runs on two of Bulgaria's largest domestically-owned lenders, Corporate Commercial Bank (Corpbank) and First Investment Bank, appear to be the result of a spat between the bank's majority shareholder, Tvetan Vassiley, and the bank's biggest single borrower, Delyan Peevski. While in part grounded in personal disagreements, the dispute is also likely part of a broader rift between the two coalition parties, the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, and reflective of a lack of transparency and high level of corruption in Bulgaria. Fresh elections have been scheduled for October 5, and public polling indicates former ruling centre-right party GERB stands a good chance of coming out on top.

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