Emerging Europe Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Emerging Europe

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Current Account Surplus Masking Risks - JULY 2015

Central Europe & Baltic States May 2015 / Hungary / Economy

Lower oil prices and an accelerating eurozone recovery will drive Hungary's current account surplus higher, reaching 4.7% of GDP in 2015 before narrowing in the years beyond. The pace of external deleveraging will begin to slow in 2015, and Hungary's large stock of external debt will remain a major macroeconomic vulnerability over the coming years.

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Currency Forecast - Pressure On Tenge To Resume, But Devaluation Unlikely - JULY 2015

Russia & CIS May 2015 / Kazakhstan / Economy

While we expect downside pressure on the Kazakh tenge to resume in H215, we nevertheless believe that the chances of a sharp devaluation of the unit have markedly decreased.

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Political Risk Analysis - Implications Of Political Crisis - JULY 2015

South East Europe May 2015 / Macedonia / Economy

Macedonia's political crisis will be a major test of its political institutions, and further upheaval appears likely. Failure by the government to make progress with institutional reform will jeopardise the country's EU membership bid, further weakening the economy.

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