Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Emerging Europe

 

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - NBP's Surprise Decision Clouds Rate Outlook - JAN 2015

Central Europe & Baltic States November 2014 / Poland / Economy

The NBP held the benchmark rate at 2.00% at its MPC meeting on November 5, against our expectation for a 25 basis point cut (consensus was for a 25-50bps cut). While growth momentum has decelerated, retail sales and PMI readings have improved across September and October, which probably underpinned the MPC's decision to keep rates on hold. The outlook for monetary policy is now more uncertain as the decision ran contrary to recent rhetoric from the NBP. If the NBP is awaiting a clearer trend from economic data, this suggests rates may remain on hold until next year.

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Risk Summary - Ukraine - JAN 2015

Russia & CIS November 2014 / Ukraine / Economy

Ukraine has reached an agreement with Russia and the EU in Brussels, Belgium on October 30 for natural gas supplies over the winter. Moscow will resume supplies to Kiev in return for payments funded by Ukraine's Western creditors. The total package is worth around USD4.6bn, with the majority of the funds coming from the IMF. Ukraine will be paying USD378/bcm in Q414 and USD365/bcm in Q115.

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Risk Summary - Bulgaria CRS - JAN 2015

South East Europe November 2014 / Bulgaria / Economy

The largest party in Bulgaria's ruling coalition, the centre-right GERB party, is considering amending the Electoral Code to make voting compulsory in time for the 2015 local elections. Whilst in opposition, GERB tabled a similar proposal in February 2014 but it was rejected by the then-ruling Socialist Party. The government argue that compulsory voting will help to rid Bulgaria of vote buying and electoral fraud, which have plagued the country's recent political past to the extent that independent election observers have monitored Bulgaria's previous five parliamentary elections.

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